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mental-models-os

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Give your brain mental models for better decision-making. 80 operational mental models as Claude Code skills with model chaining.

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# Mental Models OS

> Give your brain mental models for better decision-making.

80 mental models built as Claude Code skills. Not content you read: infrastructure you run. Each model is an operational tool that walks you through applying it to a real decision.

**[Open the visual guide](welcome.html)** to see how it works.

---

## Model Chaining: the core idea

A single mental model gives you one lens. Chaining them gives you vision.

```
/chain first-principles > inversion > second-order > trade-offs "Should we go enterprise?"
```

Each model's output feeds as context into the next. The chain produces a **Decision Brief**: a synthesized recommendation showing where models agree, where they conflict and what's still uncertain.

### Example: "Should we enter the enterprise market?"

```
Step 1 (First Principles): What are the fundamental truths about enterprise sales?
Step 2 (Inversion): What would make enterprise entry fail completely?
Step 3 (Second-Order): What are the downstream effects of going enterprise?
Step 4 (Trade-Offs): What do we give up by choosing enterprise over SMB?

→ Decision Brief: synthesized recommendation with confidence level
```

### Example: "Should I quit this project?"

```
/chain sunk-cost > inversion > local-maxima > first-principles

Step 1 (Sunk Cost): Strip away what you've already invested. Evaluate only the future.
Step 2 (Inversion): What would guarantee this fails? Are those conditions already present?
Step 3 (Local Maxima): Are you at a peak that feels like the top but isn't?
Step 4 (First Principles): If you started from scratch today, would you begin this again?
```

### Example: "How should we price this?"

```
/chain anchoring > scarcity > supply-demand > trade-offs

Step 1 (Anchoring): What reference points do customers already have?
Step 2 (Scarcity): What's genuinely scarce about your offering?
Step 3 (Supply & Demand): How elastic is demand at different price points?
Step 4 (Trade-Offs): Higher price = fewer customers. Lower price = thinner margins. Choose.
```

---

## Meta-Skills

These are the commands that chain and orchestrate the models.

| Skill | What it does |
|-------|-------------|
| `/think` | Analyzes your problem, recommends 3-5 models, runs them in sequence, produces a Decision Brief |
| `/chain` | Manually compose a chain: `/chain model1 > model2 > model3 "your decision"` |
| `/compare` | Run 2-3 models on the same problem independently and contrast their outputs |
| `/index` | Browse the full library with search and filters |

### Pre-built chain recipes

For common decision types, ready to run:

| Recipe | Chain | Use when |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Pricing | anchoring > scarcity > supply-demand > trade-offs | Setting, changing or defending a price |
| Market Entry | first-principles > customer-development > network-effects > bottlenecks > defensibility | Entering a new market or segment |
| Product Launch | first-principles > mvp > assumption-mapping > experiment-design > product-market-fit | Deciding what to build and how to validate it |
| Hiring | circle-of-competence > inversion > incentives > second-order > trade-offs | Making a key hire |
| Investment | probabilistic > margin-of-safety > inversion > second-order > sunk-cost | Evaluating where to put resources |
| Should I Quit? | sunk-cost > inversion > local-maxima > pivot-or-persevere > first-principles | Deciding whether to persist, pivot or walk away |
| Life Decision | first-principles > inversion > second-order > trade-offs | Major personal decisions |

---

## Quick start

```bash
# Get model recommendations for any decision
/think "Should I launch this product now or wait?"

# Run a single model
/inversion "Our go-to-market strategy"

# Chain models manually
/chain first-principles > inversion > second-order "Pricing decision"

# Compare models side-by-side
/compare "Expansion strategy" inversion, trade-offs, second-order
```

---

## The 80 Models

Every decision is a system. These models help you see it clearly.

### Breaking Down Problems
Strip decisions to their core, then rebuild from truth.

| Model | Skill | One-liner |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| First Principles Thinking | `/first-principles` | Break problems down to fundamental truths |
| The Map is Not the Territory | `/map-territory` | The model of reality is not reality itself |
| Circle of Competence | `/circle-of-competence` | Know what you know and what you don't |
| Thought Experiment | `/thought-experiment` | Test ideas without real-world consequences |
| Occam's Razor | `/occams-razor` | The simplest explanation is usually correct |
| Hanlon's Razor | `/hanlons-razor` | Never attribute to malice what stupidity explains |
| Algorithms | `/algorithms` | Step-by-step procedures for solving problems |
| Irreducibility | `/irreducibility` | Some things can't be simplified further |

### Stress-Testing Decisions
Pressure-test your thinking before reality does it for you.

| Model | Skill | One-liner |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| Inversion | `/inversion` | Solve problems backwards: what would guarantee failure? |
| Second-Order Thinking | `/second-order` | Think beyond the immediate consequences |
| Probabilistic Thinking | `/probabilistic` | Estimate likelihood using math, not gut feel |
| Margin of Safety | `/margin-of-safety` | Build buffers for the unexpected |
| Multiplying by Zero | `/multiply-by-zero` | One critical failure nullifies everything else |
| Regression to the Mean | `/regression-mean` | Extremes tend to move back toward average |
| Randomness | `/randomness` | Distinguishing signal from noise |
| Sampling | `/sampling` | Drawing conclusions from subsets |

### Understanding How Systems Work
Everything is a system. These models show you how they behave.

| Model | Skill | One-liner |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| Feedback Loops | `/feedback-loops` | Outputs become inputs, amplifying or dampening |
| Equilibrium | `/equilibrium` | Systems settle into stable states |
| Bottlenecks | `/bottlenecks` | The narrowest point constrains the whole system |
| Scale | `/scale` | What works at one size breaks at another |
| Critical Mass | `/critical-mass` | The tipping point where change becomes self-sustaining |
| Emergence | `/emergence` | Complex behavior from simple rules |
| Churn | `/churn` | Constant turnover beneath apparent stability |
| Diminishing Returns | `/diminishing-returns` | Each additional unit adds less value |
| Compounding | `/compounding` | Small consistent gains create exponential results |
| Surface Area | `/surface-area` | More exposure means more opportunity and more risk |
| Global and Local Maxima | `/local-maxima` | The best nearby option may not be the best overall |

### Forces That Move Things
Why things start, stop, speed up and slow down.

| Model | Skill | One-liner |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| Inertia | `/inertia` | Objects in motion stay in motion |
| Friction | `/friction` | Resistance that slows or stops movement |
| Velocity | `/velocity` | Speed with direction matters more than speed alone |
| Leverage | `/leverage` | Small inputs, massive outputs |
| Activation Energy | `/activation-energy` | The push needed to start a reaction |
| Catalysts | `/catalysts` | Agents that accelerate change without being consumed |
| Alloying | `/alloying` | Combining elements creates something stronger than either |
| Relativity | `/relativity` | Position and context change what you observe |
| Reciprocity | `/reciprocity` | Equal and opposite reactions in systems |
| Thermodynamics | `/thermodynamics` | Energy, entropy and the arrow of disorder |

### Reading Markets and Value
How value is created, captured and destroyed.

| Model | Skill | One-liner |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| Scarcity | `/scarcity` | Limited supply drives value and behavior |
| Supply and Demand | `/supply-demand` | Price emerges from the tension between availability and desire |
| Optimization | `/optimization` | Maximizing output from given constraints |
| Trade-Offs | `/trade-offs` | Every choice has a cost |
| Specialization | `/specialization` | Focus creates disproportionate advantage |
| Interdependence | `/interdependence` | Connected systems create mutual vulnerability and strength |
| Efficiency | `/efficiency` | Doing more with less, but knowing when to stop |
| Debt | `/debt` | Borrowing from the future to pay for today |
| Monopoly and Competition | `/monopoly-competition` | Market structure determines pricing power |
| Creative Destruction | `/creative-destruction` | New innovations destroy old industries |
| Gresham's Law | `/greshams-law` | Bad money drives out good |
| Bubbles | `/bubbles` | When prices detach from fundamentals |

### Building and Growing
Models for creating something from nothing and scaling it.

| Model | Skill | One-liner |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| Business Model Canvas | `/bmc` | Map your business on one page |
| Value Proposition Canvas | `/vpc` | Match what you build to what customers need |
| Assumption Mapping | `/assumption-mapping` | Identify and rank your riskiest assumptions |
| Experiment Design | `/experiment-design` | Design tests to validate or kill ideas fast |
| Build-Measure-Learn | `/build-measure-learn` | The fundamental feedback loop for building |
| Minimum Viable Product | `/mvp` | The smallest thing you can build to learn the most |
| Pivot or Persevere | `/pivot-or-persevere` | When to change direction vs double down |
| Customer Development | `/customer-development` | Get out of the building and talk to customers |
| Product-Market Fit | `/product-market-fit` | The moment pull replaces push |
| Innovation Accounting | `/innovation-accounting` | Measure progress when traditional metrics fail |
| Portfolio Map | `/portfolio-map` | Manage explore vs exploit across your business |
| Innovation Funnel | `/innovation-funnel` | Filter ideas from many to few with increasing rigor |
| Network Effects | `/network-effects` | Each new user makes the product more valuable |
| Marketplace Dynamics | `/marketplace` | Two-sided platforms and liquidity |
| Viral Growth | `/viral-growth` | Products that spread through use |
| Defensibility Map | `/defensibility` | The four types of moats: network, brand, embedding, scale |

### Overcoming Your Own Bias
Your brain lies to you. These models catch it in the act.

| Model | Skill | One-liner |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| Confirmation Bias | `/confirmation-bias` | We seek evidence that supports what we already believe |
| Sunk Cost Fallacy | `/sunk-cost` | Past investment shouldn't drive future decisions |
| Anchoring | `/anchoring` | First numbers shape all subsequent estimates |
| Loss Aversion | `/loss-aversion` | Losses hurt twice as much as equivalent gains feel good |
| Dunning-Kruger Effect | `/dunning-kruger` | The less you know, the more confident you feel |
| Incentive-Caused Bias | `/incentives` | People respond to incentives, not intentions |
| Availability Bias | `/availability-bias` | We overweight what comes easily to mind |

### Communicating and Persuading
How you say it changes what they hear.

| Model | Skill | One-liner |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| Audience | `/audience` | Know who you're talking to before you speak |
| Framing | `/framing` | How you present information changes how it's received |
| Contrast | `/contrast` | Differences reveal what matters |
| Rhythm | `/rhythm` | Pacing and timing shape impact |

### Learning Faster
Models for accelerating how you learn and think.

| Model | Skill | One-liner |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| The 5-Hour Rule | `/five-hour-rule` | Dedicate 5 hours/week to deliberate learning |
| T-Shaped Knowledge | `/t-shaped` | Deep expertise in one area, broad knowledge across many |
| Learning Transfer | `/learning-transfer` | Apply knowledge from one domain to another |
| Mental Model Chaining | `/model-chaining` | Connect models across disciplines for deeper insight |

---

## How each model works

Every model follows the same structure:

1. **What it is**: Core insight in plain language
2. **When to use it**: Specific decision contexts where this model helps
3. **The walkthrough**: Step-by-step prompts that guide you through applying it
4. **Example**: A real-world application with worked steps
5. **Chains well with**: Links to complementary models for chaining

---

## Contributing

Each model is a markdown file in `models/[category]/`. Use the template in `docs/model-template.md`.

---

Built by [David Arnoux](https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidarnoux/) | Part of the [GTM x AI Second Brain](https://github.com/darnoux/gtm-brain)

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