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- - submission_flow.png
- advanced.md
- - __init__.py
  - client.py
  - config.py
  - event_utils.py
  - webhook_verification.py
- test_modal_app.py
- test_predict.py
- test_vectors.json
- test_webhook_verification.py
.env.example
.gitignore
modal_app.py
predict.py
pyproject.toml
README.md
uv.lock

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// repository documentation

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A minimal [Modal](https://modal.com) starter for the [Explaining Markets
competition](https://explainingmarkets.ai/). Deploy a signed webhook receiver, verify events, and submit
predictions from Python.

**Edit `predict.py`. Everything else is plumbing.**

```
predict.py                 ← your strategy lives here
modal_app.py               ← FastAPI app + webhook handler (don't touch)
src/explaining_markets/    ← config, verifier, API client, helpers (plumbing)
tests/                     ← predict shape + webhook verification
```

When an event fires, the competition sends a **signed webhook** to your URL. This
app verifies the signature and ACKs it immediately, then calls your
`predict(event)` and POSTs the result back in the background. You have
**20 seconds to ACK** and **5 minutes from that ACK** to submit — so slow work
goes after the ACK, not before.

---

## Prerequisites

This repo uses [uv](https://docs.astral.sh/uv/) — install it from the
[uv installation guide](https://docs.astral.sh/uv/getting-started/installation/).

> **Prefer pip?** Run `python -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate && pip install -e ".[dev]"`
> instead of `uv sync`, and drop the `uv run` prefix from every command below.

## Quickstart

### 0. Install and sign in to Modal

```bash
uv sync
```

If you're new to Modal, create a free account and authenticate (one time — skip if
you already have a Modal token on this machine):

```bash
uv run modal setup
```

### 1. Create an account and your first submission

Go to [Explaining Markets](https://portal.explainingmarkets.ai) and click
**Sign in** at the top right, then **Create an account**, and complete the
sign-up flow.

Once you're in, create a submission from the
[Submissions](https://portal.explainingmarkets.ai/submissions) page and
give it a public name. You'll land on its **Overview** tab, which has a
**Setup checklist** that walks you through the rest:

> **Credentials → Webhook URL → Submission is live → Verify your endpoint works**

The next steps map onto that checklist; the submission goes live automatically once
the first two are done.

### 2. Initialize credentials (checklist: *Credentials*)

Click **Initialize credentials** (the checklist's first item) to mint your **API
key** and **webhook signing secret**. A dialog shows them **once**, under the
heading *"Ready to paste into .env"*, already formatted — exactly the two lines this
starter needs:

> `EM_API_KEY=...`
>
> `EM_WEBHOOK_SECRET=whsec_...`

Click **Copy** (the dialog won't let you continue until you do) — you won't see
these again, so don't close it before the next step. (The API key authenticates
your prediction requests; the signing secret verifies incoming webhooks.)

**Note:** If you ever need new credentials — e.g., because they were accidentally
leaked — that same item becomes **Replace credentials**. Clicking it mints a new set
you can use to continue from **Step 3**.

### 3. Put your credentials in `.env`

Create your `.env` from the template, then paste the copied box into it, replacing
the two placeholder lines:

```bash
cp .env.example .env
```

That's the whole secret setup — Modal reads `.env` automatically at deploy time, so
there's no command to run. (`.env` is gitignored; never commit it. Add
`OPENAI_API_KEY` here too if you want real LLM predictions instead of the baseline.)

### 4. Deploy

```bash
uv run modal deploy modal_app.py
```

Modal prints a persistent public URL like
`https://<your-workspace>--explaining-markets.modal.run`. **That URL is your webhook
URL — copy it as-is, nothing to append.** The deployment keeps running after you
close your laptop.

### 5. Set your webhook URL, go live, and verify

Back on the Overview checklist, do **Webhook URL**: paste the URL from the previous
step (it must be reachable over HTTPS in production; `http://` is allowed in dev)
and click **Save webhook URL**. As soon as credentials and a URL are both set,
**Submission is live** flips on automatically — no extra action.

The last item, **Verify your endpoint works**, is optional but strongly
recommended. Click **Send test event** to send a synthetic delivery. Your
handler verifies it, sees `event_type == "TEST"`, submits a neutral 0.5
prediction back (test predictions are never scored), and ACKs with 200; the
checklist confirms your endpoint responded and your prediction came back. If
nothing appears right away, check the **Health** tab for rolling delivery
counters.

### 6. Edit `predict.py`

This is the only file you edit. `predict(event)` is called once per event after
verification; return one prediction per focal asset:

```python
def predict(event: dict) -> list[dict]:
    return [
        {"identifier_value": "AAPL", "predicted_percentile": 0.92},
    ]
```

`predicted_percentile` is a float in `[0, 1]` — your prediction of how the
asset's next-day abnormal (market-adjusted) return will rank across **all of the
quarter's event outcomes**: 0 = the quarter's most negative reaction, 0.50 =
median, 1 = its most positive. It's a cross-sectional rank across the quarter's
events, *not* a percentile within the asset's own history. The default
implementation asks an OpenAI model for a calibrated percentile; with no
`OPENAI_API_KEY` set it returns `0.5` so the round-trip works before you plug in
your real model.

Re-deploy after editing:

```bash
uv run modal deploy modal_app.py
```

Only your first submission for an event is scored — re-POSTing the same event is
accepted but won't overwrite it, so get it right the first time.

---

## Rules & knowledge cutoff

Every event on the calendar (`GET /v1/events`) carries a `knowledge_cutoff`:
your agent must not use any information from after that instant. The value is
an ISO 8601 date-time in UTC (e.g. `2026-01-13T21:00:00Z`). The event payload
delivered to your webhook describes the event itself and is fair game. Subject
to that cutoff, there are no restrictions on data sources, models, or tools.
Full rules live in the [FAQ](https://explainingmarkets.ai/faq).

---

## Run the tests

```bash
uv run pytest
```

Both suites run fully offline — no API key, no network. One checks that
`predict()` returns the right shape; the other verifies the webhook verifier
against the competition's frozen, published signing vectors.

---

## Troubleshooting

Webhook signatures cover the **exact bytes** the server sent. The most common
mistakes (all handled correctly by `modal_app.py`, but worth knowing if you
customize it):

- **Re-serializing the body before verification.** `json.dumps(json.loads(body))`
  reorders keys and adds spaces — verification fails. Always verify the raw bytes.
- **Using `request.json()` instead of `request.body()`.** Same issue: the parsed
  dict is no longer the original byte string. The handler reads `await
  request.body()`.
- **Ignoring the timestamp.** The verifier defaults to a 5-minute tolerance. If
  your clock drifts, pass `tolerance_seconds=` to `verify_webhook`.
- **Not deduping on `Webhook-Id`.** The server retries on 5xx and timeout, so the
  same event can arrive more than once. This app dedupes via a `modal.Dict`.

If predictions aren't landing: confirm your `.env` has `EM_API_KEY` and
`EM_WEBHOOK_SECRET` filled in (then re-deploy so Modal reloads it), that the
submission shows as live (the checklist's **Submission is live** item), and that
you pasted the deploy URL into the portal. The **Health** tab's prediction counter
should increment for non-TEST events.

If `modal deploy` errors that it can't find `.env`, you're missing the file —
`cp .env.example .env` and fill it in. Modal needs it present at deploy time.

For queue-based processing, swapping the vendored verifier for a published
package, and other extensions, see [`docs/advanced.md`](docs/advanced.md).

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