world-cup-prediction-py

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# 2026 World Cup Prediction (Live)

A Python CLI that predicts the 2026 FIFA World Cup with a **Dixon-Coles** goal
model fitted on the last decade of international results.

It gives every team an **attack** and a **defence** rating, models a match as
two coupled goal distributions (with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction that
properly handles draws and 0-0 / 1-1 games), and runs a **Monte Carlo**
simulation of the full 48-team tournament (10,000 runs by default) to estimate
every team's odds of winning the title, reaching the final, and reaching the
semis.

## Live scorecard — model vs reality

Every 2026 World Cup match played so far, scored against the model. The model
was trained **only on data from before the tournament**, so each of these is a
genuine out-of-sample prediction. **Model prediction** shows the most likely
outcome with the home-win / draw / away-win probabilities (%); **Result** is a
✅ when the model's most likely outcome matched the actual winner (or a draw),
❌ otherwise. Knockout ties are scored on the 90-minute result, so a game level
after 90 counts as a draw regardless of who won the shootout.

**Outcome accuracy: 72 / 103 = 69.9%** correct calls, covering every match of
the tournament played so far.

| Match | Score | Model prediction (W / D / L %) | Result |
|-------|:-----:|--------------------------------|:------:|
| 🇲🇽 Mexico v South Africa 🇿🇦 | 2–0 | Mexico win (61 / 26 / 14) | ✅ |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea v Czech Republic 🇨🇿 | 2–1 | Czech Republic win (33 / 30 / 36) | ❌ |
| 🇨🇦 Canada v Bosnia & Herz. 🇧🇦 | 1–1 | Canada win (59 / 25 / 16) | ❌ |
| 🇺🇸 USA v Paraguay 🇵🇾 | 4–1 | USA win (38 / 32 / 30) | ✅ |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar v Switzerland 🇨🇭 | 1–1 | Switzerland win (7 / 15 / 78) | ❌ |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil v Morocco 🇲🇦 | 1–1 | Brazil win (41 / 36 / 23) | ❌ |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti v Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 | 0–1 | Scotland win (11 / 20 / 68) | ✅ |
| 🇦🇺 Australia v Turkey 🇹🇷 | 2–0 | Turkey win (34 / 30 / 36) | ❌ |
| 🇩🇪 Germany v Curaçao 🇨🇼 | 7–1 | Germany win (91 / 7 / 2) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast v Ecuador 🇪🇨 | 1–0 | Ecuador win (20 / 37 / 42) | ❌ |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands v Japan 🇯🇵 | 2–2 | Netherlands win (44 / 29 / 27) | ❌ |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden v Tunisia 🇹🇳 | 5–1 | Sweden win (42 / 32 / 27) | ✅ |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium v Egypt 🇪🇬 | 1–1 | Belgium win (56 / 29 / 16) | ❌ |
| 🇮🇷 Iran v New Zealand 🇳🇿 | 2–2 | Iran win (58 / 29 / 13) | ❌ |
| 🇪🇸 Spain v Cape Verde 🇨🇻 | 0–0 | Spain win (87 / 11 / 3) | ❌ |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia v Uruguay 🇺🇾 | 1–1 | Uruguay win (11 / 29 / 60) | ❌ |
| 🇫🇷 France v Senegal 🇸🇳 | 3–1 | France win (51 / 30 / 19) | ✅ |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq v Norway 🇳🇴 | 1–4 | Norway win (11 / 23 / 65) | ✅ |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina v Algeria 🇩🇿 | 3–0 | Argentina win (63 / 25 / 12) | ✅ |
| 🇦🇹 Austria v Jordan 🇯🇴 | 3–1 | Austria win (62 / 24 / 14) | ✅ |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal v DR Congo 🇨🇩 | 1–1 | Portugal win (66 / 24 / 10) | ❌ |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan v Colombia 🇨🇴 | 1–3 | Colombia win (12 / 27 / 61) | ✅ |
| 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v Croatia 🇭🇷 | 4–2 | England win (49 / 30 / 20) | ✅ |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana v Panama 🇵🇦 | 1–0 | Ghana win (37 / 31 / 32) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic v South Africa 🇿🇦 | 1–1 | Czech Republic win (49 / 30 / 21) | ❌ |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico v South Korea 🇰🇷 | 1–0 | Mexico win (48 / 29 / 23) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland v Bosnia & Herz. 🇧🇦 | 4–1 | Switzerland win (67 / 22 / 11) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇦 Canada v Qatar 🇶🇦 | 6–0 | Canada win (71 / 18 / 10) | ✅ |
| 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland v Morocco 🇲🇦 | 0–1 | Morocco win (18 / 33 / 48) | ✅ |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil v Haiti 🇭🇹 | 3–0 | Brazil win (92 / 6 / 2) | ✅ |
| 🇺🇸 USA v Australia 🇦🇺 | 2–0 | USA win (37 / 30 / 33) | ✅ |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey v Paraguay 🇵🇾 | 0–1 | Turkey win (37 / 32 / 31) | ❌ |
| 🇩🇪 Germany v Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 | 2–1 | Germany win (58 / 26 / 16) | ✅ |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador v Curaçao 🇨🇼 | 0–0 | Ecuador win (77 / 19 / 5) | ❌ |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands v Sweden 🇸🇪 | 5–1 | Netherlands win (56 / 24 / 20) | ✅ |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia v Japan 🇯🇵 | 0–4 | Japan win (20 / 33 / 48) | ✅ |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium v Iran 🇮🇷 | 0–0 | Belgium win (54 / 27 / 19) | ❌ |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand v Egypt 🇪🇬 | 1–3 | Egypt win (15 / 35 / 50) | ✅ |
| 🇪🇸 Spain v Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 | 4–0 | Spain win (83 / 13 / 4) | ✅ |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay v Cape Verde 🇨🇻 | 2–2 | Uruguay win (65 / 26 / 9) | ❌ |
| 🇫🇷 France v Iraq 🇮🇶 | 3–0 | France win (75 / 19 / 6) | ✅ |
| 🇳🇴 Norway v Senegal 🇸🇳 | 3–2 | Norway win (39 / 31 / 29) | ✅ |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina v Austria 🇦🇹 | 2–0 | Argentina win (58 / 28 / 14) | ✅ |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan v Algeria 🇩🇿 | 1–2 | Algeria win (17 / 25 / 58) | ✅ |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal v Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 | 5–0 | Portugal win (66 / 24 / 10) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia v DR Congo 🇨🇩 | 1–0 | Colombia win (61 / 27 / 12) | ✅ |
| 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v Ghana 🇬🇭 | 0–0 | England win (77 / 17 / 5) | ❌ |
| 🇵🇦 Panama v Croatia 🇭🇷 | 0–1 | Croatia win (10 / 20 / 70) | ✅ |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico v Czech Republic 🇨🇿 | 3–0 | Mexico win (47 / 28 / 25) | ✅ |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa v South Korea 🇰🇷 | 1–0 | South Korea win (22 / 31 / 47) | ❌ |
| 🇨🇦 Canada v Switzerland 🇨🇭 | 1–2 | Switzerland win (28 / 28 / 44) | ✅ |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herz. v Qatar 🇶🇦 | 3–1 | Bosnia & Herz. win (43 / 29 / 27) | ✅ |
| 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland v Brazil 🇧🇷 | 0–3 | Brazil win (12 / 23 / 66) | ✅ |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco v Haiti 🇭🇹 | 4–2 | Morocco win (79 / 16 / 5) | ✅ |
| 🇺🇸 USA v Turkey 🇹🇷 | 2–3 | USA win (38 / 27 / 36) | ❌ |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay v Australia 🇦🇺 | 0–0 | Draw (30 / 36 / 33) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇼 Curaçao v Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 | 0–2 | Ivory Coast win (9 / 24 / 67) | ✅ |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador v Germany 🇩🇪 | 2–1 | Germany win (27 / 32 / 41) | ❌ |
| 🇯🇵 Japan v Sweden 🇸🇪 | 1–1 | Japan win (44 / 29 / 27) | ❌ |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia v Netherlands 🇳🇱 | 1–3 | Netherlands win (14 / 27 / 59) | ✅ |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt v Iran 🇮🇷 | 1–1 | Iran win (28 / 35 / 37) | ❌ |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand v Belgium 🇧🇪 | 1–5 | Belgium win (6 / 17 / 77) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇻 Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 | 0–0 | Draw (29 / 36 / 35) | ✅ |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay v Spain 🇪🇸 | 0–1 | Spain win (18 / 31 / 51) | ✅ |
| 🇳🇴 Norway v France 🇫🇷 | 1–4 | France win (23 / 27 / 50) | ✅ |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal v Iraq 🇮🇶 | 5–0 | Senegal win (55 / 31 / 14) | ✅ |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria v Austria 🇦🇹 | 3–3 | Austria win (31 / 30 / 39) | ❌ |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan v Argentina 🇦🇷 | 1–3 | Argentina win (4 / 14 / 82) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia v Portugal 🇵🇹 | 0–0 | Portugal win (31 / 30 / 39) | ❌ |
| 🇨🇩 DR Congo v Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 | 3–1 | Draw (29 / 40 / 31) | ❌ |
| 🇵🇦 Panama v England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 | 0–2 | England win (4 / 14 / 82) | ✅ |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia v Ghana 🇬🇭 | 2–1 | Croatia win (65 / 23 / 11) | ✅ |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa v Canada 🇨🇦 | 0–1 | Canada win (21 / 31 / 48) | ✅ |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil v Japan 🇯🇵 | 2–1 | Brazil win (53 / 29 / 19) | ✅ |
| 🇩🇪 Germany v Paraguay 🇵🇾 | 1–1 | Germany win (55 / 28 / 18) | ❌ |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands v Morocco 🇲🇦 | 1–1 | Draw (34 / 34 / 31) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast v Norway 🇳🇴 | 1–2 | Norway win (22 / 30 / 49) | ✅ |
| 🇫🇷 France v Sweden 🇸🇪 | 3–0 | France win (61 / 24 / 16) | ✅ |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico v Ecuador 🇪🇨 | 2–0 | Draw (30 / 35 / 35) | ❌ |
| 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v DR Congo 🇨🇩 | 2–1 | England win (66 / 26 / 8) | ✅ |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium v Senegal 🇸🇳 | 3–2 | Belgium win (47 / 30 / 23) | ✅ |
| 🇺🇸 USA v Bosnia & Herz. 🇧🇦 | 2–0 | USA win (58 / 25 / 17) | ✅ |
| 🇪🇸 Spain v Austria 🇦🇹 | 3–0 | Spain win (62 / 24 / 14) | ✅ |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal v Croatia 🇭🇷 | 2–1 | Portugal win (48 / 28 / 24) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland v Algeria 🇩🇿 | 2–0 | Switzerland win (45 / 28 / 26) | ✅ |
| 🇦🇺 Australia v Egypt 🇪🇬 | 1–1 | Draw (36 / 36 / 28) | ✅ |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina v Cape Verde 🇨🇻 | 3–2 | Argentina win (82 / 15 / 3) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia v Ghana 🇬🇭 | 1–0 | Colombia win (73 / 20 / 8) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇦 Canada v Morocco 🇲🇦 | 0–3 | Morocco win (17 / 34 / 49) | ✅ |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay v France 🇫🇷 | 0–1 | France win (14 / 29 / 57) | ✅ |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil v Norway 🇳🇴 | 1–2 | Brazil win (54 / 26 / 20) | ❌ |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico v England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 | 2–3 | England win (18 / 29 / 53) | ✅ |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal v Spain 🇪🇸 | 0–1 | Spain win (27 / 28 / 44) | ✅ |
| 🇺🇸 USA v Belgium 🇧🇪 | 1–4 | Belgium win (21 / 25 / 54) | ✅ |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina v Egypt 🇪🇬 | 3–2 | Argentina win (64 / 27 / 9) | ✅ |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland v Colombia 🇨🇴 | 0–0 | Colombia win (27 / 29 / 43) | ❌ |
| 🇫🇷 France v Morocco 🇲🇦 | 2–0 | France win (38 / 36 / 26) | ✅ |
| 🇪🇸 Spain v Belgium 🇧🇪 | 2–1 | Spain win (51 / 27 / 22) | ✅ |
| 🇳🇴 Norway v England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 | 1–2 | England win (20 / 28 / 52) | ✅ |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina v Switzerland 🇨🇭 | 3–1 | Argentina win (54 / 29 / 17) | ✅ |
| 🇫🇷 France v Spain 🇪🇸 | 0–2 | Spain win (27 / 29 / 44) | ✅ |
| 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v Argentina 🇦🇷 | 1–2 | Draw (28 / 36 / 36) | ❌ |
| 🇫🇷 France v England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 | 4–6 | England win (30 / 33 / 37) | ✅ |

## Requirements

Python 3.10+ and a couple of scientific packages:

```bash
pip install -r requirements.txt   # numpy, scipy, certifi
```

## Run

```bash
python oracle.py                 # fit the model, simulate, then the prompt
python oracle.py --sims 2000     # fewer simulations = faster, a bit noisier
```

On first run it downloads the historical results dataset and caches it locally
(`.cache_results.csv`); later runs are offline. Delete that file to refresh.

### Backtest + final prediction

```bash
python evaluate_2026.py
```

This scores the model out-of-sample against every 2026 World Cup match already
played (accuracy, log-loss, Brier).

## The model in brief

- **Recency weighting.** Each training match is weighted by an exponential
  time-decay with a ~3-year half-life, so last year's results count far more
  than results from ten years ago.
- **Competition weighting.** Competitive fixtures (World Cups, continental
  championships, qualifiers) outweigh friendlies.
- **Dixon-Coles goals.** For home team *i* vs away team *j*, expected goals are
  `λ = exp(attack_i − defence_j + home_adv)` and `μ = exp(attack_j − defence_i)`.
  The joint scoreline probability is `τ(x,y) · Poisson(x;λ) · Poisson(y;μ)`,
  where `τ` (governed by a single dependence parameter `ρ`) corrects the four
  lowest scorelines — fixing plain Poisson's habit of under-predicting draws.
- **Joint fit.** All attack/defence ratings, the home advantage and `ρ` are
  estimated *together* by maximising the weighted log-likelihood (L-BFGS-B with
  an analytic gradient).
- **Neutral knockouts.** World Cup matches are simulated on neutral ground, so
  neither side gets the home-advantage term.
- **Tournament.** 12 groups of 4 play round-robin; the top two of each group
  plus the eight best third-place teams advance to a 32-team knockout bracket.
  The bracket uses a **fixed template** that follows the real format — group
  winners are protected from each other in the Round of 32, and a group's winner
  and runner-up sit in opposite halves so they can only meet again in the final.
  Knockout ties are decided by a lightly strength-weighted shootout. Repeat
  10,000 times and count how often each team reaches each stage.

## Using the prompt

```
> Brazil vs France      # head-to-head match prediction
> titles                # reprint the full title-odds table
> teams                 # list all 48 qualified teams + groups
> quit
```

Team names are matched loosely — `Brazil`, `BRA`, or `bra` all work.

## How it works

| File | Responsibility |
|------|----------------|
| `dataset.py` | Downloads results, restricts them to the training window, and computes the recency + competition weights. |
| `dixon_coles.py` | The Dixon-Coles goal model: weighted maximum-likelihood fit, scoreline grid, sampling. |
| `simulation.py` | Monte Carlo group stage and knockout bracket, driven by the fitted model. |
| `worldcup2026.py` | The 48 qualified teams, group assignments, and dataset name mapping. |
| `oracle.py` | The CLI — wires it together and renders the tables / prompt. |
| `evaluate_2026.py` | Out-of-sample backtest against played 2026 matches + Round-of-16 predictions. |

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